Economist
Shares hit another bout of turbulence
US banks, inflation, interest rates and recession risk – what it means for investors? Key points: – US regional bank failures have added to uncertainty about the investment outlook flowing from inflation & rate hikes. – Specific issues with the failed banks...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – nine key lessons for today from the 1970s, 80s and 90s
Key points – The experience of the high inflation 1970s and its aftermath hold key lessons for today. In particular, that once high inflation becomes entrenched in expectations that it will stay high, inflation is very hard to get back down but also that there are...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on
Key points – We are reasonably upbeat on the outlook for investment markets this year, but it won’t be smooth sailing and after a strong start to the year share markets are vulnerable to a further pull back in the short term given ongoing issues around...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – the RBA hikes rates by another 0.25% – are we there yet?
Key points – The RBA hiked again by 0.25% taking the cash rate to 3.35%. It continues to expect to increase interest rates further. -We remain of the view the cash rate is near the top as: rate hikes impact with a lag; inflationary pressures are easing globally...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian v global shares
Key points – The underperformance of Australian versus global shares since 2009 reflects a combination of tighter monetary policy, the strong $A into 2011, the slump in commodity prices, property crash phobia and classic mean reversion. – Australia’s performance...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – macro investment outlook
Key points – 2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds. – 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022 lows for...[Read More]
Review of 2022, outlook for 2023. Expect a rough ride but ultimately better returns
Key points – 2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds. – 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022 lows for...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2022 review & 2023 outlook
2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds. 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022 lows for shares is a high risk....[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – the slump in home prices continues
Key points – Australian national average home prices fell another 1% in November and are now down by 6.9% from their high, having seen their steepest fall in the last forty years. – Rising mortgage rates are the main driver of the slump and there is likely more to...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – medium term inflation pressures & implications for investors
Key points – The surge in inflation should start to reverse next year. – However, five structural trends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures than pre-pandemic. These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation;...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Shares may have bottomed
Key points Given recession and geopolitical risks, the ride for shares may still remain choppy and new lows can’t be ruled out. But the increasing evidence of a peak in US inflation (which will lead Australian inflation), central banks slowing (or moving to...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – seven reasons why Australia should be able to avoid a recession
Key points The combination of cost-of-living pressures, sharp interest rate hikes and a global downturn point to a sharp slowing in the Australian economy next year, with consumer confidence at recessionary levels. However, there are several reasons why Australia...[Read More]
The October 2022-23 Australian Budget
Key points Yet another revenue windfall and the offsetting of new spending with savings has resulted in sharply lower budget deficits this year and next, with the deficit this year expected to be $36.9bn (down from $78bn in March). This avoids adding to inflation and...[Read More]
Market Update 30 September 2022
Investment markets & key developments Share markets fell sharply again over the last week in response to continuing hawkish central bank comments and rising recession fears not helped by a mini fiscal crisis in the UK. This capped of sharp falls for the month...[Read More]
The RBA hikes rates by 0.25%. Here are five reasons why the RBA was right to slowdown and the top is near
Key points The RBA sensibly dropped back to a 0.25% hike this month taking the cash rate to 2.6%. Its still signalling more hikes ahead though. Slowing the pace of rate hikes makes sense: the RBA needs to allow time to assess the impact of rate hikes so...[Read More]