Economist
Oliver’s insights – immigration and housing affordability Why immigration should be lower
20 September
Key points – The key drivers of expensive housing in Australia have been low interest rates and a chronic housing supply shortfall. – Thankfully Australian governments are now focussing on boosting supply, but this will face various constraints...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – has the RBA finished rate hikes?
13 September
Key points – It’s likely that the RBA’s cash rate has peaked with numerous indicators pointing to slower economic growth and inflationary pressures easing. – While the risk in the short term is still on the upside for rates or a delay to...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Three reasons to err on the side of optimism as an investor
6 September
Key points – The natural human tendency to focus on bad news, the increased availability of information and the rise of social media are magnifying perceptions around worries and making it easier to be pessimistic. – However, to succeed as an...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – China’s slowdown and structural challenges and implications for Australia
23 August
Key points – China’s economy is slowing not helped by a property collapse and longer-term structural constraints around poor demographics and threats to productivity growth. – China needs to save less and spend more, and this requires...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Why the need to lift productivity and why it might be hard
16 August
Key points – The last 20 years have seen a slump in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to less than 1% pa. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class returns if allowed to...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – recession versus goldilocks, five reasons why we could still avoid recession
9 August
Key points – Rapid monetary tightening points to a high risk of recession and, given lags in the way it impacts the economy, just because it hasn’t happened yet does not mean it won’t. – However, a combination of falling inflation, a lack...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – the confusing economic picture
26 July
Why you need to know the difference between leading and lagging economic indicators Key points For nearly 30 years Australia had benign economic cycles so the current environment may be a bit of a shock for many. Still low unemployment and still...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on, Where are they now?
19 July
Key points Shares are at risk of a short term pull back and volatility will likely remain high on central bank and recession risks. However, we remain reasonably upbeat on a 12-month view as falling inflation takes pressure off interest...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 15 common sense tips to help manage your finances (11/7)
12 July
Key points Getting your personal finances right can be a challenge at times. Here are some common-sense tips that may be of use: – Shop around when it comes to financial services. – Don’t take on too much debt. – Allow for...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2022-23 saw investment returns rebound – but is it sustainable? (6/7)
12 July
Key points – After the rough ride of 2021-22, 2022-23 turned out to be a good one for investors as shares rebounded thanks to falling inflation and hopes rates are near the top. – Shares are at risk of a pull back as central banks...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian recession Q&A Why the worry? What’s the risk? And what would it mean for investors?
28 June
Key points – The risk of recession globally and in Australia has increased with ongoing central bank rate hikes. – Signs of faster wages growth has seen the RBA turn more hawkish. The risk of recession here is now around 50%. – Recession...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – sell in May and go away? The worry list for shares (and the good news!)
31 May
Key points – Shares are vulnerable to a pull back in the months ahead reflecting the rising risk of recession on the back of central bank tightening and weak seasonal influences. – Falling inflation should enable central banks, including the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – peak Australian home ownership Rising prosperity (and smashed avocado) versus housing affordability
24 May
Key points – Based on a Report by Bernard Salt, Australia’s home ownership rate peaked at 73% in 1966 as the home was then seen as synonymous with wealth and security. – Since then, the trend has been down, influenced by a combination of...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – commercial property returns under threat
17 May
Key points – Australian unlisted commercial property returns have been very strong over the last two decades thanks largely to the “search for attractive yields” by investors. – With the back up in bond yields, this driver is reversing...[Read More]
The 2023-24 Budget – Return to surplus with fastest improvement since end of WW2, cost of living help but structural deficits remain (albeit smaller)
10 May
Key points – The budget this year is expected to return to a surplus of $4bn thanks to a continuing revenue windfall. – Key measures include cost-of-living support, more spending on aged care and a move to slow NDIS growth. – Implications...[Read More]